Bitcoin Holds Above $83K as PCE Inflation Data Complicates Outlook

PCE inflation data — Bitcoin traded near $83,500 on Thursday, October 1, 2026, erasing earlier gains after a lower-than-expected US inflation reading was clouded by methodological changes to the data.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.4% year-on-year in August, below the 3.7% forecast. However, analysts noted that changes to how the Bureau of Economic Analysis calculates the index could have reduced the core reading by up to 20 basis points, leading markets to heavily discount the figures.

Bitcoin’s price had rallied to $85,600 on Wednesday before reversing, with key support seen near $82,500. On-chain data from Glassnode showed a divergence, with Bitcoin-denominated futures open interest falling nearly 20% to its lowest level since March even as the BTC price rose 35% from its August low, potentially making the rally less vulnerable to a leverage flush.

Despite the muted reaction to the PCE data, Bitcoin concluded its third quarter with gains of 42.7%, its best Q3 performance since 2017, as it entered what is historically its strongest quarter.