CFTC Proposes Rule to Classify Event Contracts as Swaps

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed a formal rule to classify certain event contracts as swaps, a move aimed at cementing its regulatory authority over prediction markets as a legal dispute with several states continues.

The proposed rule, issued on October 9, 2026, seeks to explicitly define contracts traded on platforms like Kalshi as swaps that require CFTC oversight. The agency also finalized a separate rule on the same day, part of a broader push by Chairman Mike Selig to establish the CFTC as the primary regulator for these markets.

This regulatory action is seen as an effort to bolster the CFTC’s legal position. The agency is currently engaged in a dispute with multiple states over jurisdiction for prediction markets, a fight that has seen recent federal court rulings go against the CFTC.

The move represents a formalization of the agency’s long-standing view that it alone should oversee these transactions, which can include contracts on political elections, economic indicators, and other events. The proposal will now enter a public comment period.