JPMorgan Forecasts 10% Annual Bitcoin Returns Over Next Decade

bitcoin returns — JPMorgan Asset Management projects bitcoin will deliver 10% annualized returns over the next decade, a forecast that would see it outperform traditional assets like U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold.

The bank’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, published on October 20, 2026, marks the first time it has provided a specific long-term return range for bitcoin. The base case of 10% is flanked by a bear case of a 9.7% annual loss and a bull case of a 17% annual gain.

Despite the optimistic projection, JPMorgan maintains a cautious stance on the asset’s role in portfolios. The report describes bitcoin as a speculative investment whose high volatility and unstable correlations with other assets currently hinder its widespread adoption as a portfolio diversifier for institutional investors.

The forecast places bitcoin’s expected performance above the bank’s 10-year projections for U.S. large-cap equities (7.8%), U.S. aggregate bonds (4.8%), and gold (5.2%). The analysis is part of the firm’s annual long-term assumptions, which guide strategic asset allocation for its clients.